The Biggest Challenge After the US–Iran War: The Future of Iran’s Enriched Uranium and the Limits of Nuclear Diplomacy

The cessation of direct hostilities between the United States and Iran has reduced immediate geopolitical tensions in West Asia and revived hopes for diplomatic engagement. However, the most contentious issue underpinning the conflict remains unresolved: the fate of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. While recent understandings between Washington and Tehran have focused on de-escalation and confidence-building measures, they have deliberately deferred the question of existing uranium reserves. This paper examines the strategic, legal, technical, and political dimensions of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, evaluating competing policy options and their implications for regional security, nuclear non-proliferation, and the future of US-Iran relations. It argues that the handling of Iran’s enriched uranium will ultimately determine whether the present diplomatic thaw matures into a durable peace or merely postpones another nuclear confrontation.